Cattle Market Update: Navigating Seasonal Shifts, Indonesian Quotas Lift and Strategic Opportunities
As winter sets in across Australia, cattle producers are facing a complex market landscape shaped by variable seasonal conditions, shifting supply dynamics, and evolving buyer demand. As producers ourselves, our team at RPL keep a close eye on market trends. Here's an overview of the current state of the cattle market.
Seasonal Conditions: From Brown to Green Drought
Recent rainfall has offered some relief, transitioning many regions from a "brown drought" to a "green drought". However, ground temperatures remain low, and feed availability is expected to stay limited for the next 6–8 weeks. Producers are advised to continue supplementary feeding during this period to maintain livestock condition and capitalise on potential market opportunities (Beef Central).
Market Dynamics: Breed-Specific Trends and Regional Variations
Southern Regions: Tight Supply and Rising Prices
In southern Australia, a significant sell-off has led to a sharp decline in feeder cattle numbers, particularly among Angus breeds. This scarcity has driven prices upward, with quality Angus feeders fetching up to $4.90/kg for 463kg steers at recent sales in New South Wales (Beef Central). The combination of low supply and high demand is creating a competitive market environment.
Northern Regions: Steady Supply and Export Competitiveness
Conversely, northern regions are experiencing a steady supply of crossbred and flatback cattle, supported by adequate feed availability. Feeder rates for these types remain in the high $3/kg range, maintaining competitiveness in both export and domestic markets (Beef Central). Competition at local markets between restockers and processing centres was prevalent throughout May as the recent rainfall has boosted confidence in the northern states (Bendigo Bank). Southern processors are increasingly looking north to fill supply gaps, though freight costs and weight loss during transport (curfew shrink) remain considerations (Beef Central).
Export Market Opportunities
Global beef production is anticipated to contract by 2% in 2025, with significant declines in Brazil and the United States. This presents an opportunity for Australian exporters to fill the supply gap, especially in key markets like the U.S., Japan, and South Korea (Rabobank).
Indonesia officially removed all quota restrictions on live cattle imports, as of June 2025. This development presents a significant opportunity for Australian live cattle exporters, as Indonesia is a key market for Australia's live cattle trade. The removal of import quotas could lead to increased demand for Australian cattle, benefiting producers and exporters alike.
Overall, the lifting of Indonesia's live cattle import quotas is a positive development for Australian cattle exporters, offering the potential for increased trade and strengthened economic ties between the two countries.
Strategic Considerations: Feeding vs. Replacing
For producers who have retained stock through the dry period and received some rainfall, continuing to feed existing livestock may be more cost-effective than purchasing replacements. Young ewes and heifers have presented opportunities since February, with those converting older breeders into younger inventory seeing positive financial outcomes. Early investment in replacements, coupled with supplementary feeding, can be advantageous before competition intensifies later in the season (Beef Central).
Looking Ahead: Market Outlook
In summary, the Australian cattle market in June 2025 is characterized by strong prices, robust export demand, and regional variability in seasonal conditions. Producers are encouraged to remain pragmatic, capitalise on current market strengths, and plan for potential re-entry costs in the future.
To chat to our team of agents that understand rural living, please contact Wally at walcooper@ruralpropertylivestock.com.