Weather forecasting impacts on land and livestock management for Graziers.

Following the predictions of an El Nino year from meteorologists in 2023, graziers were preparing for a dry 2024. With the start of this year seeing large rain fall through out Queensland, it seems the year’s forecast has demonstrated more La Nina patterns similar to recent years and it has had many property owners (and the media) discussing the accuracy and reliability of these forecasts.  

Decision making in agriculture is largely dependent on the seasons and feed availability. Weather and rain predictions play the biggest role in how graziers manage their land and livestock. 

In many regions across Queensland, Graziers were planning around El Nino for 2024, many making decisions such as not joining ewes, holding off buying more cattle with prices being low, and resting paddocks in preparation.  

The weather forecasts which most of us rely on, play a larger part than just a management tool for graziers.   

Over the last half of 2023 we all observed first-hand the impact weather predictions can have on buyer confidence and livestock markets as a whole. 

Within the last decade, there’s been much talk within the industry about the inaccuracy of the predictions released by BOM. Many Australian producers have voiced frustration with consistently inaccurate or changing forecasts from BOM in comparison to other corporate weather forecasting sites. 

At the end of the day, technology and predications can only do so much prior to rainfall events, and Graziers are usually prepared to plan and manage after rain has fallen because then - it is a sure thing.  

After talking with some Graziers in the Longreach region, its reported that some of them received over 6 inches in January 2024 – easing worries of the predicted El Nino. Some properties however, are still waiting.  

Extra notes to consider:  

- BOM has an annual budget of $420m dollars 

- Data for forecasting is collected through weather observation stations 

- In order for a forecast model to predict weather ahead it first needs to know what the weather is now. Weather data from observation stations and other sources is collected and fed into the model as ‘initial’ conditions. These effectively provide a snapshot of what the atmosphere looks like at the current point in time. The weather model then works out how weather will evolve over time.